Since March, it's become clear that sentiment has been turning in the Adelaide housing market. While Adelaide's median house price has seen fluctuations since mid-2022, there are notable success stories within specific suburbs. This article considers the recent shift in sentiment and what to expect in the comings months.
Recent price performance
Since February, house prices have boomed in the eastern capitals led by Sydney, which has seen prices rise over 5%. This reflects a significant shift following the rapid price declines of late 2022. The price rises have coincided with record levels of migration that have fuelled demand, and a brief pause in RBA rate hikes has offered greater certainty to investors.
What to expect in the coming months
Typically, Adelaide house prices follow movements in Sydney and Melbourne but with a lag. Sydney prices are rising at an annualised pace of 12%, with room to increase at a faster rate if there is any shift from the RBA to cut interest rates (as the market is forecasting for early next year). Prices in Adelaide typically follow Sydney and Melbourne but with a lag, and this trend is emerging again through this next upswing.
The growth rates seen in some northern Adelaide suburbs over the past year have challenged the historical perception of the local housing market as slow-paced. The remarkable price increases demonstrate the potential for significant returns on investment in targeted areas. Buyers and investors who recognise the growth potential and act strategically can take advantage of these emerging opportunities.
The continued migration driving population growth in Adelaide, coupled with the limited housing supply, have fuelled competition and pushed prices upward. As demand outweighs supply, house prices will be pushed higher.
Latest housing price forecasts
Our national price forecasts have been updated based on year to date housing market performance and changing trends in migration and interest rates. By mid-2024, we expect the median house price in Adelaide to exceed $700,000 and trend growth of 7% per year over the forecast horizon.
Looking across Australia, we are forecasting Sydney to be the strongest capital this year followed closely by Melbourne. Prices in Adelaide and Brisbane will rise with a lag as they have historically, and this will mean most growth in the short-term will occur in 2024. House prices are expected to continue rising at rapid pace through 2024 and beyond as RBA interest rate cuts fuel greater economic growth and increase borrowing power for buyers.
City | 2023 Price Growth Forecast | 2024 Price Growth Forecast |
Adelaide | 6% - 10% | 10% - 14% |
Sydney | ​8% - 12% | 7% - 11% |
Melbourne | ​7% - 11% | 8% - 12% |
Brisbane | ​4% - 8% | ​9% - 13% |
Perth | 5% - 9% | 4% - 8%​ |
The assumptions underlying this forecast include:
Inflation falls to the RBA target band in 2024
RBA interest rate cuts occur in 2024 (in line with market pricing)
APRA macro-prudential easing in 2024
Unchanged federal migration policy
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Adelaide housing market has experienced a notable shift in sentiment in recent months. While the median house price has seen fluctuations, specific suburbs have showcased success stories with significant price increases. The recent boom in house prices in the eastern capitals, fueled by record levels of migration and a temporary pause in RBA rate hikes, has had a positive ripple effect on Adelaide's market. As Adelaide typically follows the price movements of Sydney and Melbourne, albeit with a lag, there is room for further growth in the coming months. The growth rates witnessed in certain northern Adelaide suburbs challenge the perception of a slow-paced market, highlighting the potential for substantial investment returns in targeted areas. With continued migration and limited housing supply, competition remains fierce, driving prices higher. Buyers and investors who recognise these emerging opportunities and act strategically stand to benefit from the growth potential in Adelaide's housing market.
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